ERT Vision ERT believes that Europe should remain an attractive place to live and work in 2025, deeply integrated into the global economy as a respected partner. Europe should continue to stand for a high quality of life for its citizens. That is why prosperity and societal well-being are at the core of ERT’s vision. Urgent transformation is necessary to achieve these goals. Europe should turn its formidable openness and diversity into competitive advantage and evolve into a leading global innovator. Competition and free markets can act in the service of society. The Single Market should be further extended to cover all goods, services, capital, people and knowledge. Smart regulation should ensure that all policies are sustainable in the long term: they must strike the balance between all the facets of sustainability, including economic, environmental, social and financial aspects. The ERT vision suggests directions for the EU’s policies and recommends concrete actions to ensure its achievement. Why an ERT Vision? What is the ERT Vision? How do we get there? Who is ERT? Europe in 2025 – Extrapolating current trends A study published by the European Commission*outlines inter alia the following predictions for 2025 if current trends continue: - World production will have doubled compared to 2005. The combined economies of the US, the EU and Japan will no longer dominate the world. The emerging economies (accounting for 20% of the world economy in 2005) will account for 34%.
- The volume of trade could double compared to 2005. The positions of Asia and the EU are reversed. The EU is no longer the world’s largest exporter. Asia could account for a larger share of the world’s exports. China could become the second world economic power.
- The centre of gravity of world production will move towards Asia. The combined economies of China, India and South Korea will weigh as much as the EU’s.
- If recent trends continue, the US and EU will have lost their scientific and technological supremacy to the benefit of Asia, even if they are still major world powers as regards R&D. Asia will be the main destination of business R&D expenditure. India and China’s share in global R&D spending could double to 20%.
- The world’s population will increase by 20% to reach 8 billion people. 97% of this growth will occur in Asia and Africa. In 2025, the EU will only account for 6.5% of world population.
- 30% of EU citizens will be over 65 years of age – the highest proportion in the world. This is expected to necessitate an increase in public budgets of 5%.
- World energy demand will have increased by 50% by 2025. In 2030, the EU will import almost 70% of its energy needs, calling the security of the EU’s energy supply increasingly into question.
- A question remains on the growth of intangible assets (human capital, ICT use) and the share of investments in these among the EU, US and Asia.
- Even today, the EU is very dependent on imports of raw materials. Access to these raw materials is becoming more difficult.
- If the EU is not joined by other continental powers in the fight against climate change, the impact of its efforts to reduce global CO2 emissions will remain marginal. Adaptation strategies are necessary in any case.
The publication “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC)* appears to situate Europe in a marginal role in a global context by 2025: - Internal differences are predicted to cause Europe to lose its global clout and become a ‘hobbled giant’, characterised by little progress. Differing national priorities prevent the emergence of an effective external relations policy.
- Lack of economic liberalisation and insufficient welfare reforms are predicted to undermine the EU’s economic performance.
- Some progress in further integration and stabilisation of the EU’s neighbourhood is seen as possible, but there is uncertainty whether such steps would be sufficiently far-reaching.
*) References: ‘The World in 2025: Rising Asia and socio-ecological transition’, European Commission (2009) NIC report summarised in “Scanning the future: American and European Perspectives”, ISS Policy Brief (2008)
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